Shamelessly copied and pasted from another forum.
Faram hop report for 2011/2012 with some input from the brewer that received the report
uk
lots of new planting of old experimental varietals including ones that were rejected in the 50's because of their "american nature" ....might be interesting.... onthe whole yeilds have been patchy some areas have had a good year some not been a bit of mold and wilt so some feilds were not picked and left to rot"overall we do not see any supply issues with average yeilds coming from most farms"
price prediction - basicly more of the same
usa
us acreage reduced by 4.1% overall(mainly high alpha varietals ie c.t.z.'s willamette is down 42% because a-b have decided to come clean and admit they just piss into dudweasel fermenters but overall craft share should not be affected.
"where there will be problems is in the new craft market varieties such as amerillo, simcoe(up57% acreage) and ahtanum and citra(up 90% acreage) these have been planted up in response to unprecedented demand however as yakima experienced a very cold spring and a cooll start to the summer this prevented the baby plants from getting a good start and resulted in an "english"(ie crap)first year amerillo and a few other varietals have had a 30%drop and sorachi ace a 70% shortfall on contractscitra and simcoe are now fully sold out for 2012 as well....this has led to pressures on other craft varietals such as chinook(up 27% acreage) and centennial(up 144% acreage, but dont get too excited on that .its only one farm that grows the buggers) varieties such as cascade(up 23%acreage) and mount hood(up 4% acreage) have yeilded well and there is no forseeable problem with their supply
price prediction
high alpha- similar to last year
established aroma,ie cascade- slightly higher than last year
rare aroma ie amerillo and citra- dramatically higher than last year........
europe
reduction in last years acreage with massive reductions predicted next year in germany, when big brewery hop contracts run out even though there has problems this year (storms, hail, downy mildew in czech republic) yeilds have been excellent ,no supply issues predicted new varieties have been sourced form slovenia and chech republic (dana, harmonie, agnus and rubin)
price prediction similar- if not even cheaper than last year.
new zealand and auuuuuustraaalia
demand outstrips supply and all leaf hop supplies are fully exhausted, aome pellets have arrived however farams are doubling contracted quantities for the next year
price prediction- gulp!
"the overall picture suggests that there will be plenty of hops around and we will not see the shortages and mega prices of 2007 the big issue is whether we can secure enough new american and new zealand varieties to satisfy demand. interestingly all the shortages have been caused by proprietary brands (ie varietals owned by on grower or group) and there is suggestion that they are delibarately keeping the market short to inflate prices. this is already causing backlash from brewers in the states and it will be interesting to see how many of them abandon these new varieties for more reliable production"
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